And that candidate would be DONALD TRUMP.
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) July 25, 2016
Trump now leads presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent, in that scenario, according to Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight has Clinton besting Trump this November in two other prediction samples, however.
It has Clinton’s odds at 53.7 percent, to Trump’s 46.2 percent, when it discounts polls taken immediately after last week’s Republican National Convention.
Clinton’s odds rise to 58.2 percent to Trump’s 41.7 percent when factoring in economic and historical data.
FiveThirtyEight said it forecasts win probabilities by simulating the election 20,000 times, producing a distribution of possible outcomes for every state nationwide.