One of the most respect economic election models is from Moody’s Analytics, and they are predicting a landslide win for the Democratic Party, and Hillary Clinton.
The August model forecasts that Clinton will beat Trump, due to historically low gas prices and Obama’s popularity.
The model, which chooses a party, not a candidate, to win, awards Electoral College votes based on state-by-state outcomes. The most important economic variable is income growth by state, including job and wage growth, hours worked and the quality of the jobs being created in the two years leading up to an election.
The latest forecast puts 16 states, which includes Washington, D.C., firmly in Democratic territory, with 11 more leaning in that direction for a total of 332 electoral votes.
Republicans hold comfortable leads in 21 states, with three more leaning red, giving its candidate 206 electoral voters.
So, Clinton with 332 electoral votes, and Trump with 206 electoral votes…sounds good to me! It’s also identical to the result in 2012, when President Obama beat Mitt Romney.
“It’s important to once again note that the model’s projections are solely a reflection of economic and political conditions upon the incumbent party, and do not take any aspects of the individual candidates into account,” said Dan White, a Moody’s economist who compiles the monthly model.
“Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome,” White said.