Is it too early to get giddy? I know, I know…we cannot get complacent. But can we get excited?
Nate Silver is almost always right in his forecasts (he correctly forecasted Obama) and his current forecast has Hillary Clinton at an all time high!
Since Silver’s FiveThirtyEight began publishing its Polls-plus forecast of the 2016 race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Hillary is looking at her highest chances of winning to date.
As many know, statistician Nate Silver has a truly winning track record, predicting the 2008 and 2012 presidential races correctly down to the state level, with only one error. FiveThirtyEight offers three different forecast models: NCRM believes the Polls-plus model makes the most sense, compared to the Polls-only model and the Now-cast model.
Right now, the Polls-plus forecast gives Hillary Clinton an 82.6% chance of winning the presidential race – its highest to date – and Donald Trump a 17.4% chance.
The Polls-only forecast, which does not take into account other factors, such as the economy, gives Clinton an even better chance: 86.4%, close to her highest-ever in that model, which was 89.2%.
And the Now-cast forecast, which predicts who would win were the election held today, gives Clinton even better odds: 90.1%. The highest ever for that model was 96.4%.