Election

BOMBSHELL: 538’s Nate Silver’s Polling Methods Under Question – Internet Goes INSANE!


Amidst this horrible election, many have looked to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com for polling numbers.

Nate Silver rose to prominence in 2012 when, as a writer for The New York Times, he correctly predicted the winner of the Presidential election in all 50 states.

This year, Silver is less certain of the election outcome, and slightly less certain than any other major poll aggregator of a Hillary Clinton victory. As of this writing, Silver gives Donald Trump a 35.2% chance of winning the election. The Times, by comparison, has Trump’s win probability at 14%.

The Huffington Post gives Trump just a 2% chance of victory — which moved their Washington bureau chief, Ryan Grim, to write a piece criticizing Silver for “putting his thumb on the scales.”

Grim accused Silver of changing poll results to acheive a result beneficial to Trump, saying, “By monkeying around with the numbers like this, Silver is making a mockery of the very forecasting industry that he popularized.”

From The Huffington Post:

Silver’s guess that the race is up for grabs might be a completely reasonable assertion ― but it’s the stuff of punditry, not mathematical forecasting.

Punditry has been Silver’s go-to move this election cycle, and it hasn’t served him well. He repeatedly pronounced that Trump had a close to 0 percent chance of winning the Republican primary, even as he led in the polls. “Trump’s chances [are] higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent,” he wrote in November.

This really pissed Silver off.

Grim responded:

And Silver shot back:

But Grim wasn’t done!

And Nate Silver got in his final punch:

Grim is correct, in that Silver’s polling has heavily favored Trump.

What do you think??

Let us know in the comments below!!


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