Moody Analytics final model has forecasted Clinton winning 332 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 206. If Hillary wins 332 electoral votes, it would match President Obama’s 2012 total but would be less than the 365 electoral votes Obama won in 2008.
President Obama’s strong popularity — which is as high as President Ronald Reagan’s when he left office nearly 28 years ago — combined with low gas prices are boosting Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency.
Still, this year’s race is out of the ordinary, and there are factors that could play into the final outcome that simply can’t be measured by an economic model.
Dan White, a Moody’s economist who compiles the monthly model, said, “Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections.”
The Moody’s model — which picks a party, not a candidate — has predicted every election correctly since it was created in 1980.
This cycle’s model has forecast a Democratic victory since the release of its first forecast in July 2015.